Should I invest in natural gas?
Investing in natural gas may offer investors a potential hedge against inflation and a means of diversifying their portfolio. As with shares, commodity prices are volatile and should form part of a long-term investment strategy, depending on individual preference and appetite for risk.
Natural Gas Prices Are Near All-Time Lows
A historically warm winter in 2023-2024 has driven natural gas prices around the world lower, and natural gas prices are near 20-year lows, and within spitting distance of all-time lows in the United States.
While it is a fossil fuel, it is much cleaner-burning than other fossil fuels, such as coal or oil. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), natural gas reserves in the United States are estimated to last about another 86 years if production and consumption levels remain consistent.
Natural Gas Price Forecast & Price Prediction – Summary
The EIA agency forecast the Henry Hub price to trade higher during the rest of the year, but to remain lower than $3.00 per million British thermal units (MMBtu), averaging about $2.20/MMBtu for all of 2024.
Investing in the oil and gas industry carries a number of significant risks. Three of those risks are commodity price volatility risk, cutting of dividend payments for those companies that pay them, and the possibility of an oil spill or another accident during the production of oil or natural gas.
We expect U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports to average 12 Bcf/d in 2024, a 2% increase compared with last year. In 2025, LNG exports increase by an additional 2 Bcf/d (18%) because three of the five LNG export projects currently under construction are expected to start operations and ramp up to full production.
Despite these risks, there are several opportunities for the natural gas market in 2024. Increased global demand for LNG, particularly from Mexico and due to the steady demand for U.S. LNG exports to Europe and Asia, presents significant growth potential.
With minor cleanup, biogas can be used to generate electricity and heat and is used as a replacement for traditional natural gas to generate combined electricity and heating for power plants—not in vehicle applications. To fuel vehicles, biogas must be processed to a higher purity standard.
From 2030-2050, natural gas demand is still likely to remain steady. That means a consistent demand for natural gas stocks in the long run, making natural gas a sound choice.
It is expected to play a pivotal role in the energy transition by balancing renewables-based power generation until energy-storage technologies are deployed at scale. Global gas demand is projected to grow past 2030 in all scenarios, with a total projected growth of between 10 and 15 percent.
Why are natural gas stock prices falling?
There are other structural reasons behind the decline in prices. The overall level of natural gas production in the U.S. has continued to grow, and demand isn't keeping up. The amount of natural gas in storage is 5% above normal for this time of year, which is weighing on prices.
- Buy stocks in natural gas companies.
- Exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
- Master limited partnership stocks (MLPs).
- Natural gas futures.
Natural gas is often praised as a clean energy alternative. It burns more cleanly than other fossil fuels, emitting lower levels of harmful emissions such as carbon monoxide, carbon dioxide and nitrous oxides. It produces less greenhouse gases than other fossil fuels do.
Pros are lower emissions, domestic availability of fuel, lower fuel costs. Cons are high upfront vehicle costs, lack of fueling infrastructure, lower range per tank, and non-renewable resource.
Assuming the same annual rate of U.S. dry natural gas production in 2021 of about 34.52 Tcf, the United States has enough dry natural gas to last about 86 years.
World Gas Reserves
The world has proven reserves equivalent to 52.3 times its annual consumption. This means it has about 52 years of gas left (at current consumption levels and excluding unproven reserves).
Natural gas futures are standardized exchange-traded contracts that represent 10,000 MMBtu (million British thermal units) or 1,000 MMBtu of gold (Micro contract).
ETF | 2024 in % | 2021 in % |
---|---|---|
BNPP RICI Enhanced Natural Gas (ER) EUR Hedge ETC | -14.01% | - |
SG ETC Henry Hub Natural Gas Futures-Kontrakt | -29.58% | - |
WisdomTree Natural Gas | -30.31% | +37.29% |
WisdomTree Natural Gas - EUR Daily Hedged | -32.56% | +25.29% |
Texas is the largest natural gas consuming state in the U.S. In 2021, it had an annual gas consumption of 4.7 quadrillion British thermal units.
Russia has the largest proved natural gas reserves in the world. As of 2022, it held reserves worth 47.8 trillion standard cubic meters worth of the fossil fuel.
What will replace gas stoves?
Use alternative appliances for cooking and heating food where possible, like electric kettles, portable induction cooktops, toaster ovens, air fryers, and microwave ovens.
- To benefit from the growth potential in the energy sector, some of the best stocks to buy include Chevron Corporation (NYSE:CVX), Occidental Petroleum Corporation (NYSE:OXY), and Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE:XOM).
- PG&E Corporation (NYSE:PCG) operates through its subsidiary, Pacific Gas and Electric Company.
Buying shares in Gas related stocks and ETFs
There are many ways to diversify the risk of your gas stock assets portfolio. One of them is buying shares of large companies operating in the natural gas market. Natural gas stocks in the long term are in general less volatile than natural gas spot prices.
Much like crude oil, natural gas prices are heavily influenced by the prevailing supply and demand dynamics in the market. That means production levels, existing inventories and the relative strength of demand are the major factors that dictate pricing in the market.
Rising gas supply rates
Lower production in the U.S., disruptions overseas, and the effects of weather events and natural disasters all combine to lower supply at a time when demand is gaining. These situations are largely beyond our control and are hard to predict.
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